Governance News Alert: Universities and Colleges Admission Service (UCAS) 2026 cycle applicant figures – 14 January deadline and provider-level undergraduate end of cycle data resources 2025

UCAS has published its annual data set showing the number of higher education applicants making applications before the January equal consideration date (ECD) and how it compares to the same point in previous years. The end of cycle dashboard, also recently published, provides provider-level data for applicants and acceptances in 2025. Both data sets can be broken down to reveal applicant numbers and proportions by characteristics such as deprivation, ethnicity and subject choice. The key points below that relate to the 2025 data are indicated by “end of cycle”.

The equal consideration data can be found at: https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-releases/applicant-releases-for-2026-cycle/2026-cycle-applicant-figures-14-january-deadline

The 2025 data can be found at:https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-end-of-cycle-data-resources-2025

At-a-glance:

• Total applicant numbers by the January deadline are up, rising to 619,360 from 600,660 at the same point last year – a 3.1 per cent increase
• The number of UK 18-year-olds applying by the cut off has reached 338,940, up from 323,610 and a 4.8 per cent increase, reflecting the growing size of this demographic
• The participation rate for this age group is returning to pre-pandemic levels. It now stands at 40.7 per cent, up slightly from 40.6 per cent last year. After reaching a high of 42.8 per cent in 2022, the rate has eased back to more typical patterns of demand
   
• The number of 18-year-old applicants from the most deprived areas has increased across all UK nations: up 5.8 per cent in England, 13.6 per cent in Wales, 9.7 per cent in Scotland and 6.9 per cent in Northern Ireland
• International applications for undergraduate courses via UCAS have increased to 124,830, up from 118,800 last year - a 5.1 per cent rise. This includes a 10 per cent increase from applicants in China, to 34,380
• China remains the largest market for international applicants who apply through UCAS, however demand also continues to grow from India, with 8,870 applicants (up 1.5 per cent); USA, with 6,920 applicants (up 3.5 per cent); and Ireland, with 6,440 applicants (up 12 per cent)  
• Higher tariff institutions saw a 6.9 per cent jump in applicants to 247,130. Medium tariff institutions have seen 2.8 per cent growth to 212,680, while lower tariff institutions have recorded an increase of 1.8 per cent to 180,210
• In the category of smaller institutions, UK 18-year-old applicants are up 4.2 per cent to 9,360. Specialist institutions, thought, have seen a decline of 2.3 per cent to 40,670
• In the 2025 cycle, admissions to Russell Group universities rose by 9 per cent. The 24 members accounted for a record 29 per cent of enrolments – up from 27 per cent in 2024 (end of cycle)
• At several lower tariff universities, undergraduate student intakes fell by between 20 and 30 per cent
• Of the 126 institutions in the data set with at least 1,000 students, student numbers have fallen at 31 of these for two consecutive years (end of cycle)

Implication for governance:

Student applications to higher education up to the January deadline show an increase across most university types, which will be welcomed across the sector.

However, there are significant variations, with applications to high tariff universities up nearly 7 per cent compared to a more modest rise of less than 2 per cent at low tariff institutions.

These differences follow the acceptances pattern seen in the 2025 end of cycle data, with big increases across many Russell Group institutions. Elsewhere the pattern was more variable and included significant falls in intakes in the order of 20 to 30 per cent at some institutions, as well as a small number of significant increases. 

Governors across institutions will be aware of the consequences of missing student numbers target in an already challenging financial environment. There are also risks associated with quick growth. For some institutions, downsizing may be a deliberate strategy and part of transformation plans.

International demand for undergraduate entry in 2026 has grown, a finding that will again be reassuring to a sector that has seen recent instability in foreign student numbers due to changes to visa rules. A strong 10 per cent growth in Chinese students will be helpful to those institutions who rely particularly on that market.

Dr Jo Saxton CBE, chief executive of UCAS, describes the increases across nations in applications from disadvantaged background candidates as “encouraging” and highlights a new scholarships and bursaries tool to give applicants better visibility of the support available to them.

It is particularly welcomed in an environment where tuition fees have risen and headlines abound about the burden of student debt repayments and a graduate job market in the doldrums. However, the 2025 end of cycle data shows that applications do not necessarily translate to acceptances. The entry rate of applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds fell from 26.9 per cent in 2024 to 26.7 per cent last year. 

Financial and personal pressures continue to impact prospective students and these challenges may explain why the number intending to live at home increased in 2025 by more than 4 per cent, after a decade characterised by a downward trend. Commuter students are a group that universities are looking at more closely in a bid to boost engagement levels and provide support. 

Governors may be interested in the break down of the January deadline data by subject area. It shows that applications to medicine and dentistry are up by more than 12 per cent, with double figure increases found in maths and engineering also. Nursing applications fell slightly, although applications from 18 year olds were up on last year. Applications to teaching courses fell slightly. Social sciences and law courses attracted 8 per cent more applications than at this point last year. Computing applications fell by 8 per cent however, and language courses continued to see a decline in popularity. 

Early signs from the January data suggest a rise in applications from students declaring a disability of nearly 5 per cent. Categories with an increase include long term illness/health condition (+10.3 per cent), other condition/impairment (+12 per cent) and social/behavioural/communication impairment (+24 per cent). The latter category would generally include applicants with autism and ADHD.

Institutions have faced rising numbers of students with special needs in recent years and have undertaken much work to try to ensure they are supported and their student experience is not impacted. Governors will be aware of the resource implications of further rises.