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Office for Students (OfS) announces numerical thresholds for student outcomes (Condition B3)

The OfS has announced that the numerical thresholds for continuation, completion and graduate outcomes will come into force this week. Along with a press release, the regulator has published a number of documents and interactive dashboards. The “technical document” provides a summary table of final numerical thresholds and details of the analysis and reasoning for the thresholds. A regulator advice document describes how the OfS will assess an institution’s performance using “indicators” and “split indicators”. Interactive dashboards allow providers to view the assessment of their performance against the thresholds for different populations of students. The OfS has also published a report and interactive maps which show the distribution of graduates in highly skilled jobs and how this varies across the country.

The various documents and dashboards can be accessed here.

At-a-glance:

  • Under the new thresholds, for full-time students studying for a first degree, 80 per cent of students are expected continue their studies, while at least 75 per cent of students are expected to complete their course
  • The thresholds also call for 60 per cent of students to go on to further study, professional work, or “other positive outcomes”, within 15 months of graduating
  • Different thresholds will be set for different courses “depending on their mode and level of study”, for example whether a student is studying part time, an apprenticeship or at a postgraduate level
  • “Indicators” and “split indicators” will be used to assess a provider’s compliance with conditions B3. Performance can be disaggregated according to a specific indicator by time series, subject, student characteristics (such as ethnicity and free school meals), course type and teaching arrangements
  • The OfS emphasises that performance below a numerical threshold does not necessarily mean that a provider is not meeting the minimum expectations: A judgement that a provider is not compliant would only be made after the OfS has considered the context in which it is operating. A provider with performance below a numerical threshold may “still be delivering positive outcomes for its students”
  • The regulator has the power to intervene where it is not convinced by an institution’s contextual justification for its performance. Institutions could face investigation, with potential sanctions including fines
  • The OfS estimates that most universities have at least one course with outcomes below the thresholds
  • OfS data shows that 12 per cent of providers have a student continuation point estimate below a numerical threshold of 80 per cent, with 3.5 per cent of full-time, first-degree students at universities below the continuation measure. Some 12.3 per cent of providers have a completion point estimate below a threshold of 75 per cent, meaning 2 per cent of students would be studying at providers below this threshold. Nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of providers have a progression point estimate of under 60 per cent, with 2.5 per cent of student at institutions below the progression measure
  • The OfS will identify universities and colleges initially selected for assessment through a proposed prioritisation process by around the end of October 2022. Institutions will be prioritised depending on the number of students affected by performance below a numerical threshold, the distance from the relevant numerical threshold, the statistical certainty that a provider's underlying performance is below a relevant numerical threshold, and the number of a provider's indicators or split indicators that are below a numerical threshold.

Implications for governance:

The OfS measures to tackle “low quality courses”, first laid out at the start of the year, have now come into operation.

The numerical thresholds levels that will be applied to continuation, completion and graduate outcomes have not changed since those initially proposed and were discussed in an Advance HE news alert in January.

However, governors will note a new addition to the graduate outcomes threshold, which is based on responses to the Graduate Outcomes (GO) Survey, taken 15 months after students leave university. Under the threshold, a minimum of 60 per cent of students are expected to go on to further study, professional work, or “other positive outcomes”. Examples of the latter given by the OfS include “graduates building their own business or a portfolio career”, which could be an important addendum for creative arts courses, for instance, where career paths tend to be less linear, or for occupations that are not classed as “professional”.

Most universities have at least one subject area with completion and progression outcomes below the thresholds, while dropout rates are a cause for concern at some UK universities. Governors have reported spending time in the intervening months since the initial OfS proposals looking at reports, analysis and deep dive data exploring their institution’s own performance against the thresholds, both from a university-wide and a subject/course perspective.

Where provision falls below thresholds, providers will be looking at the contextual factors that could play a part in explaining performance, as well as the possible measures it can take to improve outcomes.

University leaders continue to argue, as they did in the OfS consultation, that rates of graduate employment can be affected by economic forces beyond institutions’ control and that career trajectories are difficult to compare, with individuals on some taking longer to get to “professional” status.

They also insist that the data is not perfect, a point conceded by the OfS, and that it can only ever capture aspects of student success rather than encompass the range of meaningful, worthwhile and satisfying careers a degree can lead to, which have value beyond income.

The extent to which this contextual data will be accepted as a justification for below-threshold data and how rigorous the OfS will be in assessing proposals to turn provision around before taking action remains to be seen.

According to OfS chief executive Susan Lapworth, universities and colleges with low outcomes for students, that “cannot credibly explain why”, risk intervention.

The OfS has said that should it make a provisional decision that there have been any breaches of condition B3, it would expect to issue these in or around December 2022, with any final decisions expected to be reached in or around early 2023.

There are indications in the range of documents just published that the regulator is taking contextual factors seriously. For instance, it plans to include a provider’s subject offering in contextual considerations in recognition that some subject areas are below the proposed numerical threshold across the sector, such as Agriculture and Business and Management.

The OfS also says in its report on the distribution of highly skilled jobs, that it is important to understand geographical context. The report and interactive maps give each area a quintile score depending on the proportion of highly skilled graduate employment. Quintile 5 areas, with the highest levels, are mostly in the south of England, with a small number of pockets in the rest of the country. The OfS plans to use the geography of employment quintiles in its “split indicators” for progression outcomes and benchmarking factors.

It may be helpful to governors to look at the UUK’s framework, published earlier this year, aimed at helping universities to identify and improve courses which may fall short against quality measures.

It suggests a review of programmes, using a series of metrics, including those covered by the OfS’s numerical thresholds, and data such as student satisfaction. Contextual metrics could include employment in high-growth and innovative sectors; high skilled employment in low growth areas; employment or further study in the local area; entrepreneurship, social mobility, and key attainment gaps; as well as progression into public health and social care professions or teaching, or contributions to culture or the green economy, and mission-orientated value.

The framework document recommends that programmes are monitored annually and where there are concerns, universities should set out a plan for action with defined measurable milestones, including the transformation or restructuring of courses if needed and, where applicable, closure of a course. These are of course all areas where governors will want to keep a close eye on their institution’s performance and plans.

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